Houston Texans

Davis Mills Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Davis Mills has gone over 15.5 FS in 2 of his last 4 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Stanford
Experience: 7 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 15.9 FS · our line

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OutDavis Mills isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Mills has served as the Texans' QB2 for each of the past two seasons, but he started in three games during the 2025 season while Stroud was sidelined due to a concussion. Mills led the Texans to wins in all three of his starts, completing 59.5 percent of his passes for 719 yards, five touchdowns and one interception while turning seven carries into 38 yards and a score in that span. Stroud hasn't had the same kind of production over the past two years as he did in his rookie campaign in 2023, and he committed seven turnovers across Houston's two playoff games. If Stroud has a slow start to the 2026 season, then that could be enough for head coach DeMeco Ryans to turn the keys to the offense over to Mills.

Verdict

vs 15.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 52% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral

Projection vs line52neutral

Consistency24argues against it

Projection

16.1 FS

L5 15.9 · L10 15.9 · med 15.4

Consistency

Variable

floor 11.2 · ceil 20.5

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 54 games

50%over

2 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%

Last 104 games

50%over

2 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%

Last 204 games

50%over

2 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%

Season4 games

50%over

2 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	75%	3/4
	75%	3/4
	75%	3/4
15.5Current	50%	2/4
	25%	1/4
	25%	1/4
	25%	1/4

Last 4 games — FS per game vs. line 15.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 15.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%1/3Low

Away100%1/1Low

Days since last game

3+ days67%2/3Low

Last matchup — vs BUF

Nov 21, 2025

25thof 32 in FS allowed to quarterbacks

BUF allows 13.9 FS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 20 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 4 games, Davis Mills has gone over 15.5 FS 2 of 4 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. BUF has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 25th-most FS of 32 teams (13.9 per game). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 7.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.