Miami Dolphins

De'Von Achane Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Dec 28, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

De'Von Achane has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 1 of his last 10 decided games (10%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Texas A&M
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.2 REC TD · our line

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OutDe'Von Achane isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Achane dealt with a shoulder issue over the spring and was limited to individual drills at mandatory minicamp, but Hafley indicated his star running back has passed the conditioning test and will not open camp on the active/PUP list. Achane inked a four-year, $64 million extension with Miami earlier in the offseason and is once again expected to be the focal point of the offense after totaling 1,838 yards and 12 touchdowns from scrimmage across 16 regular-season games in 2025.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 86% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line86supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.1 REC TD(×1.02 context)

L5 0.0 · L10 0.1 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.4

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Last 1010 games

10%over

1 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–40%

Last 2014 games

21%over

3 over · 11 under

Medium confidence95% CI 8%–48%

Season14 games

21%over

3 over · 11 under

Medium confidence95% CI 8%–48%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	21%	3/14
	0%	0/14
	0%	0/14
	0%	0/14

Last 14 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home11%1/9Medium

Away40%2/5Low

Days since last game

3+ days15%2/13Medium

With a teammate out

How this REC TD line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Jaylen Wright out+0.1 REC TD when he sits

Without (7g)

0.3 REC TD

29% over 0.5

With (7g)

0.1 REC TD

14% over 0.5

Last matchup — vs TB

Dec 28, 2025

10thof 32 in REC TD allowed to running backs

TB allows 0.1 REC TD per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 28 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, De'Von Achane has gone over 0.5 REC TD 1 of 10 decided times (10%) — versus 21% across the full season. TB has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 10th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.1 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 21%.