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Miami DolphinsDe'Von Achane Receiving Yards
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
De'Von Achane has gone over 29.5 REC YDS in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Texas A&M
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 31.5 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDe'Von Achane isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Achane racked up 23 touches after touching the ball 11 times in Week 1, but the speedster has struggled to find running room while consistently facing stacked boxes. He is averaging a meager 3.5 yards per rushing attempt heading into a Week 3 home game against the Chiefs, which is a departure from Achane's excellent efficiency in previous seasons, as he averaged 5.7 yards per carry last season and has a career mark of 5.6 YPC. Defenses are daring Malik Willis and Miami's underwhelming wide-receiver room to beat them, and Miami's offense hasn't been up to the task during the team's 0-2 start.
Verdict
vs 29.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 61% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)67supports it
Projection vs line61supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
24.4 REC YDS(×0.86 context)
L5 30.8 · L10 31.3 · med 29.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 16.0 · ceil 45.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2016 games
44%over
7 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 23%–67%Season16 games
44%over
7 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 23%–67%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56% | 9/16 | ||
| 56% | 9/16 | ||
| 56% | 9/16 | ||
| 29.5Current | 44% | 7/16 | |
| 31% | 5/16 | ||
| 31% | 5/16 | ||
| 31% | 5/16 |
Situational splits
Over 29.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home44%4/9Low
Away43%3/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days40%6/15Medium
Next matchup — vs KC
Sep 27, 2026
9thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to running backs
KC allows 21.0 REC YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, De'Von Achane has gone over 29.5 REC YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 44% across the full season. KC has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 9th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (21.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 23.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 27.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
FanDuel-113
-5.8% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-113
-5.8% EV
Model vs market (over)-11.0%
Our model puts the over at 39.0% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (27.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.
More De'Von Achane research
De'Von Achane — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Achane Carries→
Carries hit rates and trends.
Achane Rushing TDs→
Rushing TDs hit rates and trends.
Achane Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Achane Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.