San Francisco 49ers

Deebo Samuel Sr. Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Deebo Samuel Sr. has gone over 9 FS in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: South Carolina
Experience: 9 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 12.2 FS · PrizePicks line

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OutDeebo Samuel Sr. isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Samuel didn't have quite the success he did in Week 1 against the Rams, but San Francisco controlled this game from start to finish, and Brock Purdy needed to attempt only 22 passes. With the Niners continuing to lose wideouts to injuries, Samuel is locked into the WR2 role behind Mike Evans (hip) headed into next Sunday's home date with the Cardinals. Through two games, Samuel has nine catches for 79 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets. He's also rushed two times for 16 yards.

Verdict

vs 9 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 57% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)72supports it

Projection vs line57neutral

Consistency10argues against it

Projection

10.2 FS(×0.97 context)

L5 9.3 · L10 10.5 · med 9.2

Consistency

Variable

floor 6.5 · ceil 19.7

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2017 games

59%over

10 over · 7 under

Medium confidence95% CI 36%–78%

Season17 games

59%over

10 over · 7 under

Medium confidence95% CI 36%–78%

Last 17 games — FS per game vs. line 9.0. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 9 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home63%5/8Low

Away56%5/9Low

Days since last game

3+ days56%9/16Medium

Next matchup — vs ARI

Sep 27, 2026

5thof 32 in FS allowed to wide receivers

ARI allows 13.6 FS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Deebo Samuel Sr. has gone over 9 FS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 59% across the full season. ARI has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 5th-most FS of 32 teams (13.6 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 6.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 59%.