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San Francisco 49ersDeebo Samuel Sr. Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)
Stats updated: Oct 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Deebo Samuel Sr. has gone over 10.5 FS in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- South Carolina
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 12.0 FS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
QuestionableQuestionableConfirm Deebo Samuel Sr.'s status before the game.
- Injury:
- Right Hamstring Not Specified
Prior to the 49ers' Week 8 bye, head coach Kyle Shanahan expressed optimism that Samuel may be able to return in Week 9, but the tide turned Thursday, when GM told KNBR radio that the wide receiver isn't likely to play Sunday against the Raiders, according to Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area. With two DNPs under his belt so far and one more chance to practice Friday, Samuel appears to be in line for his third missed game in a row due to a right hamstring injury.
Verdict
vs 10.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)No readFireFactor 5/100· model 56% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)58neutral
Projection vs line56neutral
Consistency13argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
12.1 FS(×1.01 context)
L5 11.6 · L10 11.0 · med 9.2
Consistency
Variable
floor 6.5 · ceil 18.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2017 games
53%over
9 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 31%–74%Season17 games
53%over
9 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 31%–74%Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)
FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59% | 10/17 | ||
| 59% | 10/17 | ||
| 53% | 9/17 | ||
| 10.5Current | 53% | 9/17 | |
| 41% | 7/17 | ||
| 41% | 7/17 | ||
| 35% | 6/17 |
Situational splits
Over 10.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%4/8Low
Away56%5/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%8/16Medium
Next matchup — vs LV
Nov 8, 2026
11thof 32 in FS allowed to wide receivers
LV allows 10.5 FS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 25 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Deebo Samuel Sr. has gone over 10.5 FS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 53% across the full season. LV has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 11th-most FS of 32 teams (10.5 per game). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 6.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.
More Deebo Samuel Sr. research
Deebo Samuel Sr. — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Samuel Sr. Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Samuel Sr. Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Samuel Sr. Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.