New Orleans Saints

Devaughn Vele Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Oct 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Devaughn Vele has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 3 of his last 7 decided games (43%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Utah
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.4 REC TD · our line

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OutDevaughn Vele isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

The third-year wideout was on the other end of Tyler Shough's only TD pass of the day, hauling in a one-yard toss in the second quarter for the Saints' final points. Vele tied his career high with his third touchdown of the season, and his 33-348-3 line on 48 targets through seven games has him tracking toward a career-best campaign heading into a Week 8 bye. His role could shrink significantly after the bye, however, if rookie Jordyn Tyson (hamstring) is cleared to make his NFL debut.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 64% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it

Projection vs line64supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup50neutral

Projection

0.4 REC TD(×0.92 context)

L5 0.4 · L10 0.4 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 107 games

43%over

3 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%

Last 207 games

43%over

3 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%

Season7 games

43%over

3 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	43%	3/7
	0%	0/7
	0%	0/7
	0%	0/7

Last 7 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%2/4Low

Away33%1/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days33%2/6Low

Next matchup — vs CLE

Nov 8, 2026

19thof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

CLE allows 0.2 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 29 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 7 games, Devaughn Vele has gone over 0.5 REC TD 3 of 7 decided times (43%) — versus 43% across the full season. CLE has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 19th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.2 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 43%.