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Las Vegas RaidersDeven Thompkins
#83 · WR · 5' 8" · 155 lb · 2 games
Stats updated: Dec 7, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Utah State
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 13.5 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDeven Thompkins isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The wide receiver appeared in seven games and on 22 offensive snaps for Atlanta last season. Thompkins has 30 catches for 166 yards and one touchdown across four NFL campaigns, including playoffs. He likely stands on the fringe of the roster competition in Las Vegas.
Verdict
vs 13.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 48% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral
Projection vs line48neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
13.1 REC YDS
L5 13.5 · L10 13.5 · med 13.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 7.8 · ceil 19.2
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 52 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Last 102 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Last 202 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Season2 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 13.5Current | 50% | 1/2 | |
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 |
Situational splits
Over 13.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home0%0/1Low
Away100%1/1Low
Days since last game
3+ days0%0/1Low
Last matchup — vs SEA
Dec 7, 2025
26thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
SEA allows 37.9 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 64 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 2 games, Deven Thompkins has gone over 13.5 REC YDS 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. SEA has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 26th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (37.9 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 9.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.