New Orleans Saints

Devin Neal Targets

Stats updated: Dec 14, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Devin Neal has gone over 2.5 TGT in 3 of his last 5 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Kansas
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 3.0 TGT · our line

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OutDevin Neal isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Neal dealt with an undisclosed issue during the spring but is past the injury and working alongside Kendre Miller with the Saints' second-team offense. The two are competing for roles behind Travis Etienne and Alvin Kamara in the New Orleans backfield.

Verdict

vs 2.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 49% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it

Projection vs line49neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

2.7 TGT

L5 3.0 · L10 3.0 · med 3.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 1.0 · ceil 3.8

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 105 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 205 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Season5 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	5/5
	60%	3/5
2.5Current	60%	3/5
	20%	1/5
	20%	1/5
	20%	1/5

Last 5 games — TGT per game vs. line 2.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 2.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%1/2Low

Away67%2/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%2/4Low

Last matchup — vs CAR

Dec 14, 2025

22ndof 32 in TGT allowed to running backs

CAR allows 2.3 TGT per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 39 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 5 games, Devin Neal has gone over 2.5 TGT 3 of 5 decided times (60%) — versus 60% across the full season. CAR has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 22nd-most TGT of 32 teams (2.3 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 60%.