Pittsburgh Steelers

DK Metcalf Targets

Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

DK Metcalf has gone over 8.5 TGT in 4 of his last 7 decided games (57%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Ole Miss
Experience: 9 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 8.6 TGT · our line

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OutDK Metcalf isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Aaron Rodgers put up a season low in completions, pass attempts, passing yards and completion percentage Sunday, and Metcalf's production was part of the collateral damage. The veteran wideout did see a team high in targets, but the fact he did next to nothing with them led to season lows in catches and receiving yards. Metcalf has had a handful of splash plays over the first half of the season and has two games of more than 90 receiving yards, but he's averaging a career-low 11.5 yards per catch and has just a single touchdown reception heading into the Week 9 bye.

Verdict

vs 8.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 44% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)68supports it

Projection vs line44neutral

Consistency39argues against it

Projection

7.9 TGT(×0.96 context)

L5 8.2 · L10 8.6 · med 9.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 6.0 · ceil 9.8

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 107 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Last 207 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Season7 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	86%	6/7
	57%	4/7
	57%	4/7
8.5Current	57%	4/7
	29%	2/7
	14%	1/7
	14%	1/7

Last 7 games — TGT per game vs. line 8.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 8.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%1/3Low

Away75%3/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%3/6Low

Last matchup — vs CLE

Nov 1, 2026

28thof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers

CLE allows 4.9 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 29 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 7 games, DK Metcalf has gone over 8.5 TGT 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. CLE has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 28th-most TGT of 32 teams (4.9 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 3.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.