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Pittsburgh SteelersDK Metcalf Targets
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
DK Metcalf has gone over 7.5 TGT in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Ole Miss
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Targets · season avg 7.5 TGT · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDK Metcalf isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Metcalf led the Steelers in targets again but put forth a second consecutive inefficient outing after turning 10 targets into just four catches for 40 yards in the season opener against the Falcons. Rookie second-round pick Germie Bernard led the team with 35 receiving yards Sunday in the absence of Michael Pittman (foot) as Aaron Rodgers threw for just 187 yards on 4.8 yards per pass attempt. Metcalf's heavy volume from Rodgers is encouraging, but Pittsburgh's passing game has underwhelmed as a whole heading into a Week 3 home game against the Bengals.
Verdict
vs 7.5 TGTTargetsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 47% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)53neutral
Projection vs line47neutral
Consistency55neutral
Projection
8.2 TGT(×1.01 context)
L5 9.0 · L10 8.0 · med 8.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 5.0 · ceil 9.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2015 games
47%over
7 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–70%Season15 games
47%over
7 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–70%Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)
TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 15/15 | ||
| 73% | 11/15 | ||
| 67% | 10/15 | ||
| 7.5Current | 47% | 7/15 | |
| 33% | 5/15 | ||
| 13% | 2/15 | ||
| 7% | 1/15 |
Situational splits
Over 7.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home38%3/8Low
Away57%4/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%7/14Low
Next matchup — vs CIN
Sep 27, 2026
17thof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers
CIN allows 5.6 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 7 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, DK Metcalf has gone over 7.5 TGT 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 47% across the full season. CIN has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 17th-most TGT of 32 teams (5.6 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.
More DK Metcalf research
DK Metcalf — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Metcalf Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Metcalf Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Metcalf Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.