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Cleveland BrownsDylan Sampson
#22 · RB · 5' 8" · 200 lb · 10 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Tennessee
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 16.4 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDylan Sampson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Easterling projects that all four backs will make the Browns' initial 53-man roster ahead of Week 1. While Judkins (230 carries in 14 regular season contests last season) is the clear-cut starter provided he can stay healthy, Sampson, who rushed 65 times for 175 yards and caught 33 passes (on 40 targets) for 271 yards and three receiving scores in 15 games as a rookie last year, could see enough pass-catching volume in 2026 to merit attention in deeper fantasy PPR formats.
Verdict
vs 17.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 56% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral
Projection vs line56neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
20.0 RUSH YDS(×1.02 context)
L5 21.8 · L10 16.4 · med 17.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 5.6 · ceil 27.4
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Season10 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 5/10 | ||
| 50% | 5/10 | ||
| 50% | 5/10 | ||
| 17.5Current | 50% | 5/10 | |
| 50% | 5/10 | ||
| 50% | 5/10 | ||
| 50% | 5/10 |
Situational splits
Over 17.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home60%3/5Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days44%4/9Low
With a teammate out
How this RUSH YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Shedeur Sanders out-10.8 RUSH YDS when he sits
Without (5g)
11.0 RUSH YDS
20% over 17.5
With (5g)
21.8 RUSH YDS
80% over 17.5
Dillon Gabriel out+13.2 RUSH YDS when he sits
Without (5g)
23.0 RUSH YDS
80% over 17.5
With (5g)
9.8 RUSH YDS
20% over 17.5
Last matchup — @ CIN
Jan 4, 2026
4thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
CIN allows 55.1 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 36 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Dylan Sampson has gone over 17.5 RUSH YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. CIN has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 4th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (55.1 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 11.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.