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Cleveland BrownsDylan Sampson
#22 · RB · 5' 8" · 200 lb · 10 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 8 of these 10 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Tennessee
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 18.5 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDylan Sampson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Sampson was out-carried 11 to one by Quinshon Judkins, but the former has carved out a role as the preferred pass-catching back for Cleveland since returning from injured reserve in Week 7. Over the last two games, Sampson has turned 11 targets into nine catches for 94 yards while adding seven carries for 52 yards. Sampson will have some PPR fantasy appeal during weeks when the Browns are projected to trail on the scoreboard.
Verdict
vs 17.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 55% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line55neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup100supports it
Projection
20.7 RUSH YDS(×1.00 context)
L5 23.0 · L10 18.5 · med 17.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 5.6 · ceil 29.6
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Season10 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 5/10 | ||
| 50% | 5/10 | ||
| 50% | 5/10 | ||
| 17.5Current | 50% | 5/10 | |
| 50% | 5/10 | ||
| 50% | 5/10 | ||
| 50% | 5/10 |
Situational splits
Over 17.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away43%3/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days44%4/9Low
Next matchup — @ NO
Nov 8, 2026
3rdof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
NO allows 64.3 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 13 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Dylan Sampson has gone over 17.5 RUSH YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. NO has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 3rd-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (64.3 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 14.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
5 books @ 13.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
DraftKings-111
-5.0% EV
Best Under
Caesars-109
-4.1% EV
Model vs market (over)+5.4%
Our model puts the over at 55.4% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (13.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.