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Cleveland BrownsDylan Sampson
#22 · RB · 5' 8" · 200 lb · 10 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Tennessee
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 16.4 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDylan Sampson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Knee Not Specified
- Est. return:
- Oct 18, 2026
It's unclear exactly how much time Sampson will miss. He is expected back this season, per Mary Kay Cabot of The Cleveland Plain Dealer, but his placement on IR means he will miss at least the next four games. Jaleel McLaughlin was brought up from the practice squad, and both he and Raheim Sanders -- who played 18 snaps on offense and got four touches Sunday after Sampson's exit -- will work behind starter Quinshon Judkins.
Verdict
vs 17.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 50% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral
Projection vs line50neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
18.4 RUSH YDS(×0.94 context)
L5 21.8 · L10 16.4 · med 17.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 5.6 · ceil 27.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Season10 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 5/10 | ||
| 50% | 5/10 | ||
| 50% | 5/10 | ||
| 17.5Current | 50% | 5/10 | |
| 50% | 5/10 | ||
| 50% | 5/10 | ||
| 50% | 5/10 |
Situational splits
Over 17.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home60%3/5Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days44%4/9Low
Next matchup — vs CAR
Sep 27, 2026
1stof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
CAR allows 86.8 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Dylan Sampson has gone over 17.5 RUSH YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. CAR has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 1st-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (86.8 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 11.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.