New England Patriots

Eli Raridon Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Sep 9, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Eli Raridon has gone over 7.5 FS in 0 of his last 1 decided games (0%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Notre Dame
Experience: Rookie

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 7.2 FS · our line

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OutEli Raridon isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Raridon opened the scoring in the second quarter with a two-yard touchdown catch on his first career target, but the Patriots failed to hold onto the lead. The rookie third-round pick out of Notre Dame played 38 of the team's 71 snaps on offense, and Raridon is the clear No. 2 tight end behind Hunter Henry, who caught all three of his targets Wednesday.

Verdict

vs 7.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 0% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line5argues against it

Consistency100supports it

Projection

7.6 FS(×1.06 context)

L5 7.2 · L10 7.2 · med 7.2

Consistency

Steady

floor 7.2 · ceil 7.2

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 51 game

0%over

0 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–79%

Last 101 game

0%over

0 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–79%

Last 201 game

0%over

0 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–79%

Season1 game

0%over

0 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–79%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	1/1
	100%	1/1
	100%	1/1
7.5Current	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1

Last 1 games — FS per game vs. line 7.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 7.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Away0%0/1Low

Next matchup — vs PIT

Sep 20, 2026

32ndof 32 in FS allowed to tight ends

PIT allows 0.0 FS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 1 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Tough

The read

Over his last 1 games, Eli Raridon has gone over 7.5 FS 0 of 1 decided times (0%) — versus 0% across the full season. PIT has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 32nd-most FS of 32 teams (0.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game FS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 0%.