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Pittsburgh SteelersGermie Bernard
#17 · WR · 6' 1" · 206 lb · 5 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Alabama
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 51.8 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutGermie Bernard isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Bernard led the team in catches, reeling in multiple passes for the fifth straight week and sixth time overall this year. The wide receiver has built a strong rapport with starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers, but it's unclear what Bernard's workload will look like after the Steelers have a chance to regroup and potentially acquire another pass catcher during the team's bye week in Week 9.
Verdict
vs 35.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 38% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line38argues against it
Consistency16argues against it
Projection
49.1 REC YDS
L5 51.8 · L10 51.8 · med 35.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 29.4 · ceil 81.4
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 105 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 205 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Season5 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 35.5Current | 40% | 2/5 | |
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 40% | 2/5 |
Situational splits
Over 35.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%1/2Low
Away33%1/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%2/4Low
Last matchup — vs CLE
Nov 1, 2026
26thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
CLE allows 37.4 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 29 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 5 games, Germie Bernard has gone over 35.5 REC YDS 2 of 5 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. CLE has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 26th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (37.4 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 26.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.