Philadelphia Eagles

Hollywood Brown Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Hollywood Brown has gone over 8.5 FS in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Oklahoma
Experience: 9 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 10.1 FS · our line

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OutHollywood Brown isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Brown signed with the Eagles early in free agency and now finds himself competing for opportunities in a reshaped receiving corps. DeVonta Smith is entrenched as the team's No. 1 wideout, while rookie first-round pick Makai Lemon and tight end Dallas Goedert also stand to benefit from the departure of A.J. Brown. Brown's experience and ability to stretch the field could help him carve out a role, though he faces competition from Dontayvion Wicks and Elijah Moore as training camp approaches. The 29-year-old put up a 49-587-5 line (on 74 targets) across 16 regular-season appearances with the Chiefs in 2025.

Verdict

vs 8.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 47% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)73supports it

Projection vs line47neutral

Consistency15argues against it

Projection

7.6 FS(×0.90 context)

L5 6.7 · L10 9.3 · med 9.1

Consistency

Variable

floor 8.0 · ceil 12.1

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

60%over

6 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%

Last 2012 games

58%over

7 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 32%–81%

Season12 games

58%over

7 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 32%–81%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	83%	10/12
	83%	10/12
	83%	10/12
8.5Current	58%	7/12
	25%	3/12
	25%	3/12
	25%	3/12

Last 12 games — FS per game vs. line 8.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 8.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home60%3/5Low

Away57%4/7Low

Days since last game

3+ days55%6/11Low

With a teammate out

How this FS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Jalen Hurts out

Without (9g)

10.1 FS

56% over 8.5

With (3g)

10.1 FS

67% over 8.5

Saquon Barkley out

Without (9g)

10.1 FS

56% over 8.5

With (3g)

10.1 FS

67% over 8.5

Last matchup — @ LV

Jan 4, 2026

22ndof 32 in FS allowed to wide receivers

LV allows 8.7 FS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 65 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Hollywood Brown has gone over 8.5 FS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 58% across the full season. LV has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 22nd-most FS of 32 teams (8.7 per game). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 5.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 58%.