New York Giants

Isaiah Likely Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Isaiah Likely has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 2 of his last 8 decided games (25%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Coastal Carolina
Experience: 6 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.4 REC TD · our line

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OutIsaiah Likely isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Likely showcased excellent chemistry with quarterback Jaxson Dart, as all of their attempted connections resulted in completions, including touchdowns of 15 yards in the second quarter and two yards in the third, which turned a 7-7 tie into a 21-7 Giants lead. Malik Nabers (knee) suited up and led the team with nine targets, but no other teammate exceeded four targets or 27 receiving yards. Likely looks like an integral piece of the Giants' passing game heading into a Week 2 road game against the Rams on Monday Night Football.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 58% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line58neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.7 REC TD(×1.09 context)

L5 0.6 · L10 0.4 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.6

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 108 games

25%over

2 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 7%–59%

Last 208 games

25%over

2 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 7%–59%

Season8 games

25%over

2 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 7%–59%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	25%	2/8
	13%	1/8
	0%	0/8
	0%	0/8

Last 8 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%2/4Low

Away0%0/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days29%2/7Low

Next matchup — @ LAR

Sep 22, 2026

14thof 32 in REC TD allowed to tight ends

LAR allows 0.0 REC TD per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 8 games, Isaiah Likely has gone over 0.5 REC TD 2 of 8 decided times (25%) — versus 25% across the full season. LAR has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 14th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 25%.