Las Vegas Raiders

Jack Bech Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jack Bech has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 1 of his last 9 decided games (11%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: TCU
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.1 REC TD · our line

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OutJack Bech isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Bech logged just 27 of Las Vegas' 68 offensive snaps, but his 3-23-1 line on four targets was very similar to that of fellow wideouts Tre Tucker (3-27-0 on four targets) and Jalen Nailor (3-27-0 on five targets). Bech had by far the biggest impact, however, thanks to his 15-yard TD reception in the first quarter. QB Kirk Cousins leaned the most on running back Ashton Jeanty (6-45-2 line on six targets) and tight end Michael Mayer (6-32-0 on seven targets) through the air, but his near-even distribution of targets among the team's wideouts is a good sign for Bech's potential to grow within the offense. The Raiders' WR corps doesn't have a clear-cut No. 1 option, so Bech has a chance to push for an increased role with a strong start to the campaign.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 88% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line88supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.1 REC TD(×0.83 context)

L5 0.2 · L10 0.1 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 109 games

11%over

1 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–44%

Last 209 games

11%over

1 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–44%

Season9 games

11%over

1 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–44%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	11%	1/9
	0%	0/9
	0%	0/9
	0%	0/9

Last 9 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%1/3Low

Away0%0/6Medium

Days since last game

3+ days13%1/8Medium

Next matchup — @ NO

Sep 27, 2026

4thof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

NO allows 0.5 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 9 games, Jack Bech has gone over 0.5 REC TD 1 of 9 decided times (11%) — versus 11% across the full season. NO has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 4th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 11%.