Buffalo Bills

Jackson Hawes Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jackson Hawes has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 2 of his last 10 decided games (20%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Georgia Tech
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.2 REC TD · our line

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OutJackson Hawes isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Hawes was in the starting lineup alongside both Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox but served mainly in a blocking capacity, as he failed to record any targets across 25 offensive snaps. The 25-year-old also saw eight snaps on special teams and should continue to see similar usage going forward unless either Kincaid or Knox is forced to miss time.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 83% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line83supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.2 REC TD(×0.90 context)

L5 0.2 · L10 0.2 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.6

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

20%over

2 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%

Last 2013 games

23%over

3 over · 10 under

Medium confidence95% CI 8%–50%

Season13 games

23%over

3 over · 10 under

Medium confidence95% CI 8%–50%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	23%	3/13
	0%	0/13
	0%	0/13
	0%	0/13

Last 13 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%2/6Low

Away14%1/7Low

Days since last game

3+ days25%3/12Medium

Last matchup — vs NYJ

Jan 4, 2026

14thof 32 in REC TD allowed to tight ends

NYJ allows 0.0 REC TD per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Jackson Hawes has gone over 0.5 REC TD 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 23% across the full season. NYJ has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 14th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 23%.