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Arizona CardinalsJacoby Brissett
#7 · QB · 6' 4" · 235 lb · 12 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- NC State
- Experience
- 12 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 280.5 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJacoby Brissett isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Per Ian Rapoport of NFL Network, Brissett's new deal will increase his 2026 compensation to $15.5 million guaranteed and up to $21 million with incentives, meaning he'll still become an unrestricted free agent after this season. It ends a stalemate in contract negotiations between the veteran quarterback and the Cardinals that started in mid-April right before the 2026 NFL Draft, which led to Brissett sitting out of OTAs before reporting to mandatory minicamp and training camp. Now that talks have resolved with a restructured contract, Brissett can focus his efforts toward training camp and strengthening his hold on the starting quarterback job, with Gardner Minshew and rookie third-round pick Carson Beck battling for the backup role. Brissett is coming off a career year in 2025, when he completed 64.9 percent of passes for 3,366 yards, 23 touchdowns and eight interceptions across 14 regular-season games (12 starts).
Verdict
vs 266.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 67% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)57neutral
Projection vs line67supports it
Consistency63supports it
Projection
234.4 PASS YDS(×0.91 context)
L5 235.6 · L10 276.7 · med 259.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 244.2 · ceil 313.8
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2012 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Season12 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 266.5Current | 50% | 6/12 | |
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 50% | 6/12 |
Situational splits
Over 266.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home80%4/5Low
Away29%2/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days45%5/11Low
With a teammate out
How this PASS YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Tyler Allgeier out-27.9 PASS YDS when he sits
Without (5g)
264.2 PASS YDS
40% over 266.5
With (7g)
292.1 PASS YDS
57% over 266.5
Last matchup — @ LAR
Jan 4, 2026
16thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
LAR allows 219.4 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 22 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jacoby Brissett has gone over 266.5 PASS YDS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 50% across the full season. LAR has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 16th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (219.4 per game). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 62.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.