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Arizona CardinalsJacoby Brissett
#7 · QB · 6' 4" · 235 lb · 14 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 12 of these 14 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- NC State
- Experience
- 12 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 267.0 PASS YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJacoby Brissett isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Brissett struggled to push the ball down the field against the Seahawks' vaunted secondary, and as a result, he was limited to just 5.4 yards per completion. The quarterback was able to connect with tight end Trey McBride for a two-yard score to open the second quarter, but that was the only bright spot on the day for the 33-year-old. He attempted to find wide receiver Michael Wilson deep down the left sideline in the third quarter, but Julian Love jumped in front of it for his the safety's second interception of the year. Brissett has proven to be more than capable of producing positive results for fantasy managers in his time with the Cardinals, and his next chance to get back on track will come Week 3 against the 49ers on the road.
Verdict
vs 222.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 45% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line45neutral
Consistency53neutral
Projection
189.7 PASS YDS(×0.83 context)
L5 206.0 · L10 262.0 · med 260.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 230.6 · ceil 307.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2014 games
79%over
11 over · 3 under
Medium confidence95% CI 52%–92%Season14 games
79%over
11 over · 3 under
Medium confidence95% CI 52%–92%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 79% | 11/14 | ||
| 79% | 11/14 | ||
| 79% | 11/14 | ||
| 222.5Current | 79% | 11/14 | |
| 79% | 11/14 | ||
| 79% | 11/14 | ||
| 79% | 11/14 |
Situational splits
Over 222.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%4/6Low
Away88%7/8Medium
Days since last game
3+ days77%10/13Medium
Next matchup — @ SF
Sep 27, 2026
24thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
SF allows 176.0 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jacoby Brissett has gone over 222.5 PASS YDS 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 79% across the full season. SF has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 24th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (176.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 75.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
1 book @ 222.5 PASS YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.8%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.2%
Best Over
DraftKings-111
-5.4% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-113
-5.4% EV
Model vs market (over)-4.6%
Our model puts the over at 45.2% vs the market's no-vig 49.8%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (218.5 PASS YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 79%.