Washington Commanders

Jacory Croskey-Merritt Rushing TDs

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Arizona
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksRushing TDs · season avg 0.5 RUSH TD · our line

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OutJacory Croskey-Merritt isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Croskey-Merritt missed time during the Commanders' voluntary OTAs due to an unspecified soft-tissue injury. However, the running back returned to the field Tuesday and looking healthy in the process, per Zach Selby of the team's official site. Now that he's back in the mix, Croskey-Merritt -- who logged a team-high 805 rushing yards on 175 carries and nine catches for 68 yards in 17 regular-season games in 2025 -- will look to solidify his key role in a crowded Washington backfield that also includes Rachaad White, Kaytron Allen, Jerome Ford and Jeremy McNichols

Verdict

vs 0.5 RUSH TDRushing TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 58% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)81supports it

Projection vs line58neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.6 RUSH TD(×0.97 context)

L5 0.8 · L10 0.4 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

30%over

3 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%

Last 2015 games

40%over

6 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 20%–64%

Season15 games

40%over

6 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 20%–64%

Alternate lines — Rushing TDs (RUSH TD)

RUSH TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate RUSH TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	40%	6/15
	13%	2/15
	0%	0/15
	0%	0/15

Last 15 games — RUSH TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 RUSH TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home57%4/7Low

Away25%2/8Low

Days since last game

3+ days36%5/14Medium

With a teammate out

How this RUSH TD line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Rachaad White out

Without (8g)

0.5 RUSH TD

38% over 0.5

With (7g)

0.6 RUSH TD

43% over 0.5

Terry McLaurin out-0.5 RUSH TD when he sits

Without (7g)

0.3 RUSH TD

14% over 0.5

With (8g)

0.8 RUSH TD

63% over 0.5

Last matchup — @ PHI

Jan 4, 2026

11thof 32 in RUSH TD allowed to running backs

PHI allows 0.4 RUSH TD per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 33 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Jacory Croskey-Merritt has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 40% across the full season. PHI has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 11th-most RUSH TD of 32 teams (0.4 per game). His game-to-game RUSH TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.