Detroit Lions

Jahmyr Gibbs Targets

Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jahmyr Gibbs has gone over 6.5 TGT in 3 of his last 7 decided games (43%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Alabama
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 6.3 TGT · our line

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OutJahmyr Gibbs isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Gibbs and the Lions started relatively slowly against the Vikings' aggressive defense, netting just six first-half points. However, Gibbs continued to plug away against Minnesota's talented front, and he eventually began breaking through for multiple productive runs. Gibbs warmed up for a big second half with a 19-yard scamper just before halftime, and he went on to add a game-long 30-yard run for his one touchdown in the latter portion of the third quarter. Gibbs then helped seal the victory with gains of 17, nine and nine yards on Detroit's next-to-last drive, as well as his final 28 rushing yards of the day on the final possession. The star back ultimately finished with his second-highest rushing yardage total of the season and third of greater than 150 yards, affording him massive momentum heading into a favorable Week 9 road matchup against the Dolphins next Sunday.

Verdict

vs 6.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 52% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it

Projection vs line52neutral

Consistency63supports it

Matchup50neutral

Projection

6.5 TGT(×1.09 context)

L5 6.2 · L10 6.3 · med 6.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 5.2 · ceil 7.8

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 107 games

43%over

3 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%

Last 207 games

43%over

3 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%

Season7 games

43%over

3 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	7/7
	86%	6/7
	71%	5/7
6.5Current	43%	3/7
	29%	2/7
	0%	0/7
	0%	0/7

Last 7 games — TGT per game vs. line 6.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 6.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home25%1/4Low

Away67%2/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%3/6Low

Next matchup — @ MIA

Nov 8, 2026

14thof 32 in TGT allowed to running backs

MIA allows 2.8 TGT per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 14 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 7 games, Jahmyr Gibbs has gone over 6.5 TGT 3 of 7 decided times (43%) — versus 43% across the full season. MIA has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 14th-most TGT of 32 teams (2.8 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 1.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 43%.