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Jacksonville JaguarsJakobi Meyers
#16 · WR · 6' 2" · 200 lb · 16 games
Stats updated: Jan 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- NC State
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 50.4 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJakobi Meyers isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
In 16 regular-season games (seven with Las Vegas and nine with Jacksonville) in 2025, Meyers recorded a 75-835-3 receiving line, and the Jaguars showed their commitment to him by inking the veteran wideout to a three-year, $60 million deal in December. In his first full campaign with Jacksonville, Meyers will have plenty of competition for targets, but the 29-year-old should see enough weekly volume to make a fantasy mark, especially in PPR formats.
Verdict
vs 44.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 53% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line53neutral
Consistency25argues against it
Projection
41.4 REC YDS(×0.98 context)
L5 42.2 · L10 47.7 · med 44.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 32.0 · ceil 68.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2016 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Season16 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56% | 9/16 | ||
| 56% | 9/16 | ||
| 56% | 9/16 | ||
| 44.5Current | 50% | 8/16 | |
| 44% | 7/16 | ||
| 44% | 7/16 | ||
| 44% | 7/16 |
Situational splits
Over 44.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%3/9Low
Away71%5/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days47%7/15Low
With a teammate out
How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Parker Washington out+11.5 REC YDS when he sits
Without (4g)
59.0 REC YDS
50% over 44.5
With (12g)
47.5 REC YDS
50% over 44.5
Last matchup — vs BUF
Jan 11, 2026
18thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
BUF allows 41.5 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 54 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jakobi Meyers has gone over 44.5 REC YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. BUF has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 18th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (41.5 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 22.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.