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Carolina PanthersJalen Coker Targets
Stats updated: Oct 29, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Jalen Coker has gone over 4.5 TGT in 7 of his last 10 decided games (70%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Holy Cross
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Targets · season avg 6.3 TGT · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJalen Coker isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Coker was having a forgettable night before he used his speed to turn a short Bryce Young pass into a 26-yard touchdown with just under six minutes remaining in the contest. Coker's fumble came on the last play of the game, as he lost the handle on the ball shortly after receiving a lateral from Tetairoa McMillan at the Panthers' 26-yard line. Coker is in the midst of a two-game downturn that unsurprisingly coincides with struggles on the part of Bryce Young, as the speedy wideout has just three receptions for 45 yards and Thursday's score in that span heading into a tough Week 9 assignment at home against the Broncos on Sunday, Nov. 8.
Verdict
vs 4.5 TGTTargetsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 72% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)66supports it
Projection vs line72supports it
Consistency21argues against it
Matchup100supports it
Projection
7.3 TGT(×1.11 context)
L5 7.0 · L10 7.2 · med 6.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 4.0 · ceil 9.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2015 games
53%over
8 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–75%Season15 games
53%over
8 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–75%Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)
TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 15/15 | ||
| 100% | 15/15 | ||
| 100% | 15/15 | ||
| 4.5Current | 53% | 8/15 | |
| 40% | 6/15 | ||
| 33% | 5/15 | ||
| 27% | 4/15 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home57%4/7Low
Away50%4/8Low
Days since last game
3+ days57%8/14Low
Next matchup — vs DEN
Nov 8, 2026
1stof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers
DEN allows 7.3 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 20 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jalen Coker has gone over 4.5 TGT 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 53% across the full season. DEN has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 1st-most TGT of 32 teams (7.3 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 3.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.
More Jalen Coker research
Jalen Coker — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Coker Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Coker Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Coker Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.