Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Jalen McMillan Targets

Stats updated: Jan 3, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jalen McMillan has gone over 5.5 TGT in 1 of his last 2 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Washington
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 6.0 TGT · our line

Save this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it

OutJalen McMillan isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

The Bucs continued to shake up their wide receiver room by selecting Hurst with the 84th overall pick last Friday. Over the offseason, the team has subtracted Mike Evans, who signed with the 49ers in free agency, and added Hurst to a group that still includes Chris Godwin, Emeka Egbuka, McMillan and Tez Johnson. McMillan missed most of last season with a neck injury before making his debut in Week 15. In four regular-season games, McMillan produced a respectable 12-178-0 line on 15 targets. Egbuka faded fast after a big first half of the campaign, and Godwin didn't look anything like his old self after breaking his ankle in 2024. How this depth chart shakes out during training camp and the preseason will be something to watch for an offense that likes to throw the football.

Verdict

vs 5.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 54% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral

Projection vs line54neutral

Consistency17argues against it

Projection

6.1 TGT

L5 6.0 · L10 6.0 · med 6.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 4.2 · ceil 7.8

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 52 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 102 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 202 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Season2 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	2/2
	50%	1/2
	50%	1/2
5.5Current	50%	1/2
	50%	1/2
	50%	1/2
	50%	1/2

Last 2 games — TGT per game vs. line 5.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 5.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Away50%1/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days100%1/1Low

Last matchup — @ MIA

Dec 28, 2025

29thof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers

MIA allows 4.9 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 54 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 2 games, Jalen McMillan has gone over 5.5 TGT 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. MIA has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 29th-most TGT of 32 teams (4.9 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 3.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.