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New York GiantsJameis Winston
#19 · QB · 6' 4" · 231 lb · 3 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 2 of these 3 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 21, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Florida State
- Experience
- 13 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 226.0 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJameis Winston isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
After exiting in the first quarter Monday, Dart received a preliminary diagnosis of a sprained MCL, an injury that typically entails a multi-week absence but typically isn't season-ending. Unfortunately for Dart, follow-up tests Tuesday seemingly revealed additional damage to his knee that could potentially lead to season-ending surgery. Dart will likely receive additional medical opinions before a treatment plan and recovery timeline is established, but with an extended absence on tap, the door is open for Winston to direct the New York offense beginning with Sunday's game versus Tennessee. Winston averaged a healthy 8.6 yards per attempt between two starts and one brief appearance off the bench with the Giants a season ago, but he was highly inefficient in relief of Dart in his 2026 debut Monday, completing just 11 of 27 passes for 111 yards, no touchdowns and an interception.
Verdict
vs 200.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 57% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)99supports it
Projection vs line57neutral
Consistency22argues against it
Projection
216.3 PASS YDS(×0.98 context)
L5 226.0 · L10 226.0 · med 201.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 147.0 · ceil 300.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 53 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Last 103 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Last 203 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Season3 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 2/3 | ||
| 67% | 2/3 | ||
| 67% | 2/3 | ||
| 200.5Current | 67% | 2/3 | |
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 33% | 1/3 |
Situational splits
Over 200.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%1/1Low
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%1/2Low
Next matchup — vs TEN
Sep 27, 2026
14thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
TEN allows 239.5 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 3 games, Jameis Winston has gone over 200.5 PASS YDS 2 of 3 decided times (67%) — versus 67% across the full season. TEN has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 14th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (239.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 105.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.