Arizona Cardinals

James Conner Receiving Yards

Stats updated: Sep 21, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

James Conner has gone over 14.5 REC YDS in 2 of his last 3 decided games (67%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Pittsburgh
Experience: 11 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving Yards · season avg 12.7 REC YDS · our line

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QuestionableConfirm James Conner's status before the game.

Injury:: Not Specified Foot Not Specified

Coming back from season-ending foot surgery, Conner didn't do much during the offseason program but took part in the opening practices of training camp. Now that 11-on-11 drills are starting up, Conner has been forced to watch from the sideline while Tyler Allgeier and Jeremiyah Love take first-team reps. There will be concern for Conner's Week 1 availability if he doesn't begin full-team work within the next week or two.

Verdict

vs 14.5 REC YDSReceiving Yards

Warm overFireFactor 29/100· model 44% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)99supports it

Projection vs line44neutral

Consistency27argues against it

Projection

13.0 REC YDS

L5 12.7 · L10 12.7 · med 15.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 9.0 · ceil 16.8

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs over on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 53 games

67%over

2 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%

Last 103 games

67%over

2 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%

Last 203 games

67%over

2 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%

Season3 games

67%over

2 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%

Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)

REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC YDS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	67%	2/3
	67%	2/3
	67%	2/3
14.5Current	67%	2/3
	33%	1/3
	33%	1/3
	33%	1/3

Last 3 games — REC YDS per game vs. line 14.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 14.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home100%1/1Low

Away50%1/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days100%2/2Low

Last matchup — @ SF

Sep 21, 2025

8thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to running backs

SF allows 16.9 REC YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 37 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 3 games, James Conner has gone over 14.5 REC YDS 2 of 3 decided times (67%) — versus 67% across the full season. SF has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 8th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (16.9 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 5.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.