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Detroit LionsJared Goff Completions
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Jared Goff has gone over 24.5 CMP in 4 of his last 7 decided games (57%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- California
- Experience
- 12 seasons
Line
Completions · season avg 24.0 CMP · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJared Goff isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Goff unsurprisingly saw his production limited by the Vikings' aggressive defense, and he took four sacks overall while also tossing his first interception of the season. The veteran signal-caller also saw a 24-yard first-quarter scoring strike to Amon-Ra St. Brown overturned on replay, but Goff's beautifully thrown seven-yard TD pass to Jameson Williams in the left corner of the end zone with 4:35 remaining turned out to be the difference in the game. Goff will take 1,964 passing yards and a 15:1 TD:INT into a Week 9 road matchup against the Dolphins next Sunday.
Verdict
vs 24.5 CMPCompletionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 50% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)68supports it
Projection vs line50neutral
Consistency69supports it
Projection
23.9 CMP(×1.04 context)
L5 23.2 · L10 24.0 · med 25.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 19.6 · ceil 26.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Completions (CMP)
CMP over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 24.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 14% | 1/7 | ||
| 14% | 1/7 |
Situational splits
Over 24.5 CMP by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away67%2/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%3/6Low
Next matchup — @ MIA
Nov 8, 2026
12thof 32 in CMP allowed to quarterbacks
MIA allows 21.4 CMP per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 7 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 7 games, Jared Goff has gone over 24.5 CMP 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. MIA has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 12th-most CMP of 32 teams (21.4 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game CMP have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 4.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.
More Jared Goff research
Jared Goff — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
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Goff Rushing Yards→
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Goff Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.