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Minnesota VikingsJauan Jennings
#15 · WR · 6' 3" · 212 lb · 15 games
Stats updated: Jan 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Tennessee
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 43.9 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJauan Jennings isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Jennings will head to Minnesota after spending the first six years of his NFL career with the 49ers, five of which were as a member of the team's active roster. The wide receiver most recently caught 55 of 90 targets for 643 yards and a career-high nine touchdowns over 15 regular-season games in 2025. He now will join a Vikings roster that has a pair of former first-round picks in Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison as anchors in the WR room, but Jennings will provide the team with a formidable trio at the position.
Verdict
vs 40.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 43% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)61supports it
Projection vs line43neutral
Consistency27argues against it
Projection
36.3 REC YDS(×0.90 context)
L5 41.6 · L10 45.4 · med 41.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 29.6 · ceil 57.4
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2015 games
53%over
8 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–75%Season15 games
53%over
8 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–75%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 9/15 | ||
| 60% | 9/15 | ||
| 53% | 8/15 | ||
| 40.5Current | 53% | 8/15 | |
| 40% | 6/15 | ||
| 33% | 5/15 | ||
| 33% | 5/15 |
Situational splits
Over 40.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home43%3/7Low
Away63%5/8Low
Days since last game
3+ days57%8/14Low
With a teammate out
How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
J.J. McCarthy out-8.6 REC YDS when he sits
Without (11g)
41.6 REC YDS
45% over 40.5
With (4g)
50.3 REC YDS
75% over 40.5
Aaron Jones Sr. out-10.0 REC YDS when he sits
Without (11g)
41.3 REC YDS
45% over 40.5
With (4g)
51.3 REC YDS
75% over 40.5
Last matchup — @ SEA
Jan 18, 2026
26thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
SEA allows 37.9 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 64 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jauan Jennings has gone over 40.5 REC YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 53% across the full season. SEA has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 26th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (37.9 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 19.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.