Dallas Cowboys

Jaydon Blue Receiving Yards

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jaydon Blue has gone over 0.5 REC YDS in 1 of his last 3 decided games (33%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Texas
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving Yards · season avg 1.7 REC YDS · our line

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OutJaydon Blue isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Blue, who the Cowboys took in the fifth round of the 2025 NFL Draft, logged just 38 carries for 129 yards and a TD and one catch for five yards in five regular-season games as a rookie. While Malik Davis emerged as Javonte Williams' primary backup last year, Blue will have a chance to compete for that role this summer with Davis, as well as Phil Mafah. Williams remains the team's unquestioned lead back, but if Blue can parlay the speed and explosiveness Schottenheimer has noted he possesses into a larger complementary role, the Texas product could carry fantasy sleeper appeal in 2026.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC YDSReceiving Yards

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 39% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)99supports it

Projection vs line39argues against it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

1.5 REC YDS

L5 1.7 · L10 1.7 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 3.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 53 games

33%over

1 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%

Last 103 games

33%over

1 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%

Last 203 games

33%over

1 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%

Season3 games

33%over

1 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%

Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)

REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC YDS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	33%	1/3
	33%	1/3
	33%	1/3
	33%	1/3

Last 3 games — REC YDS per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home100%1/1Low

Away0%0/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days0%0/2Low

Last matchup — @ NYG

Jan 4, 2026

18thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to running backs

NYG allows 14.6 REC YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 31 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 3 games, Jaydon Blue has gone over 0.5 REC YDS 1 of 3 decided times (33%) — versus 33% across the full season. NYG has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 18th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (14.6 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.