Washington Commanders

Jeremy McNichols Targets

Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jeremy McNichols has gone over 1.5 TGT in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Boise State
Experience: 7 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 2.0 TGT · our line

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OutJeremy McNichols isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Not Specified Foot Not Specified
Est. return:: Feb 15, 2027

McNichols was placed on injured reserve Tuesday, and what coach Dan Quinn described as a "serious mid-foot injury" will keep the running back sidelined for the rest of the 2026 campaign. With Jacory Croskey-Merritt (groin) slated to miss at least two more games, the Commanders' current healthy RBs are Rachaad White, Austin Ekeler and Robert Henry.

Verdict

vs 1.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 55% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)70supports it

Projection vs line55neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup75supports it

Projection

1.8 TGT(×1.06 context)

L5 1.6 · L10 2.2 · med 2.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.6 · ceil 3.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

60%over

6 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%

Last 2014 games

57%over

8 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 33%–79%

Season14 games

57%over

8 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 33%–79%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	79%	11/14
1.5Current	57%	8/14
	36%	5/14
	14%	2/14
	7%	1/14

Last 14 games — TGT per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%4/8Low

Away67%4/6Low

Days since last game

3+ days62%8/13Low

Next matchup — vs LAR

Nov 8, 2026

9thof 32 in TGT allowed to running backs

LAR allows 2.9 TGT per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 17 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Jeremy McNichols has gone over 1.5 TGT 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 57% across the full season. LAR has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 9th-most TGT of 32 teams (2.9 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.