Carolina Panthers

Jimmy Horn Jr. Targets

Stats updated: Jan 10, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jimmy Horn Jr. has gone over 2.5 TGT in 1 of his last 6 decided games (17%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Colorado
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 2.2 TGT · our line

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Verdict

vs 2.5 TGTTargets

Frozen underFireFactor 83/100· model 74% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line74supports it

Consistency71supports it

Projection

1.9 TGT(×0.92 context)

L5 2.0 · L10 2.2 · med 2.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 2.0 · ceil 2.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Last 106 games

17%over

1 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 3%–56%

Last 206 games

17%over

1 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 3%–56%

Season6 games

17%over

1 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 3%–56%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	6/6
	100%	6/6
2.5Current	17%	1/6
	0%	0/6
	0%	0/6
	0%	0/6

Last 6 games — TGT per game vs. line 2.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 2.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home25%1/4Low

Away0%0/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days0%0/5Medium

Last matchup — vs LAR

Jan 10, 2026

4thof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers

LAR allows 6.1 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 64 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 6 games, Jimmy Horn Jr. has gone over 2.5 TGT 1 of 6 decided times (17%) — versus 17% across the full season. LAR has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 4th-most TGT of 32 teams (6.1 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 17%.