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Cincinnati BengalsJoe Burrow
#9 · QB · 6' 4" · 215 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- LSU
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 302.1 PASS YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutJoe Burrow isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
A Titans offense that had been mostly moribund all season unexpectedly came to life Sunday, requiring Burrow to remain aggressive throughout the afternoon. While that helped lead to his season-high three interceptions, it was also unsurprisingly a boon for his fantasy production, as the 2020 first overall pick finished with his second 400-yard performance of the season and a season-high five TD tosses. Burrow had his rapport with top receivers Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins working throughout the afternoon, as he connected with the duo a combined 21 times for 296 yards and three touchdowns. Burrow's other two scoring strikes went to Mike Gesicki and Jack Endries, and the prolific quarterback then sealed the win himself with a nine-yard scoring run at the seven-minute mark of overtime. Burrow and the Bengals now make the transatlantic flight to Madrid, Spain, where they'll face the Falcons next Sunday in a Week 9 matchup.
Verdict
vs 276.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 79% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)75supports it
Projection vs line79supports it
Consistency46neutral
Projection
366.8 PASS YDS(×1.14 context)
L5 330.8 · L10 302.1 · med 282.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 216.4 · ceil 400.8
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Situational splits
Over 276.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days67%4/6Low
Next matchup — @ ATL
Nov 8, 2026
2ndof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
ATL allows 271.4 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 7 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 7 games, Joe Burrow has gone over 276.5 PASS YDS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. ATL has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 2nd-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (271.4 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 97.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 276.5 PASS YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
FanDuel-114
-6.1% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-114
-6.1% EV
Model vs market (over)+28.9%
Our model puts the over at 78.9% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (276.5 PASS YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.