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Cincinnati BengalsJoe Burrow
#9 · QB · 6' 4" · 215 lb · 9 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 7 of these 9 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- LSU
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 243.8 PASS YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJoe Burrow isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Burrow's workmanlike stat line underscores the type of road upset victory it was for the Bengals, who didn't need to be overly aggressive against a Texans offense missing Nico Collins (hamstring). Burrow, who came into the game dealing with back tightness, took his share of lumps in the form of five sacks, but he delivered dynamic 32- and 18-yard touchdown passes to Ja'Marr Chase. Burrow also notably avoided any turnovers despite being consistently under duress, and through his first two games, he's completed a solid 68.2 percent of his passes and posted three touchdowns versus one interception while operating under center more often than in recent seasons. Burrow will look to continue his solid early-season play in a Week 3 divisional road matchup against the Steelers next Sunday.
Verdict
vs 258.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 61% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)67supports it
Projection vs line61supports it
Consistency61supports it
Projection
240.7 PASS YDS(×0.99 context)
L5 262.2 · L10 243.8 · med 254.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 217.8 · ceil 292.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 109 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Last 209 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Season9 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44% | 4/9 | ||
| 44% | 4/9 | ||
| 44% | 4/9 | ||
| 258.5Current | 44% | 4/9 | |
| 44% | 4/9 | ||
| 44% | 4/9 | ||
| 33% | 3/9 |
Situational splits
Over 258.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home25%1/4Low
Away60%3/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%4/8Low
Next matchup — @ PIT
Sep 27, 2026
25thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
PIT allows 175.5 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 9 games, Joe Burrow has gone over 258.5 PASS YDS 4 of 9 decided times (44%) — versus 44% across the full season. PIT has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 25th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (175.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 56.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.