Washington Commanders

John Bates Targets

Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

John Bates has gone over 2.5 TGT in 2 of his last 6 decided games (33%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Boise State
Experience: 7 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 2.5 TGT · our line

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OutJohn Bates isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Bates has primarily been utilized as a run blocker during his NFL career, though he did come up with two catches (on three targets) for 13 yards during the Commanders' 24-22 loss to the Eagles in Week 1. Bates should see an uptick in offensive snaps and targets from Jayden Daniels due to Okonkwo's absence, with Ben Sinnott and Colson Yankoff also in the mix for elevated roles.

Verdict

vs 2.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 61% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)98supports it

Projection vs line61supports it

Consistency49neutral

Projection

2.4 TGT(×0.96 context)

L5 2.6 · L10 2.5 · med 2.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 2.0 · ceil 3.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 106 games

33%over

2 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 10%–70%

Last 206 games

33%over

2 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 10%–70%

Season6 games

33%over

2 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 10%–70%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	6/6
	100%	6/6
2.5Current	33%	2/6
	17%	1/6
	0%	0/6
	0%	0/6

Last 6 games — TGT per game vs. line 2.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 2.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%1/3Low

Away33%1/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days40%2/5Low

Next matchup — vs SEA

Sep 27, 2026

6thof 32 in TGT allowed to tight ends

SEA allows 4.7 TGT per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 6 games, John Bates has gone over 2.5 TGT 2 of 6 decided times (33%) — versus 33% across the full season. SEA has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 6th-most TGT of 32 teams (4.7 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.