Indianapolis Colts

Jonathan Taylor Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jonathan Taylor has gone over 17.5 FS in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Wisconsin
Experience: 8 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 21.8 FS · our line

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OutJonathan Taylor isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Taylor has started the season with a pair of two-touchdown performances on the ground after leading the league with 18 rushing touchdowns in the 2025 regular season. The star running back broke free for a 24-yard rushing touchdown with 59 seconds left in the first half before adding a five-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter to tie the score at 27-27. Taylor is the focal point of Indianapolis' offense, and that's unlikely to change in Week 3, even with Houston's stout front seven coming to town.

Verdict

vs 17.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 53% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)63supports it

Projection vs line53neutral

Consistency12argues against it

Projection

19.1 FS(×0.91 context)

L5 18.9 · L10 19.2 · med 16.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 12.2 · ceil 30.9

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

30%over

3 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%

Last 2019 games

47%over

9 over · 10 under

Medium confidence95% CI 27%–68%

Season19 games

47%over

9 over · 10 under

Medium confidence95% CI 27%–68%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	68%	13/19
	58%	11/19
	58%	11/19
17.5Current	47%	9/19
	47%	9/19
	47%	9/19
	47%	9/19

Last 19 games — FS per game vs. line 17.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 17.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home60%6/10Low

Away33%3/9Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%9/18Medium

Next matchup — vs HOU

Sep 27, 2026

17thof 32 in FS allowed to running backs

HOU allows 10.6 FS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Jonathan Taylor has gone over 17.5 FS 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 47% across the full season. HOU has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 17th-most FS of 32 teams (10.6 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 11.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.