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Minnesota VikingsJordan Addison Targets
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Jordan Addison has gone over 7.5 TGT in 4 of his last 9 decided games (44%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- USC
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Targets · season avg 7.7 TGT · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJordan Addison isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The Vikings exercised Addison's fifth-year option in April, with the 2023 first-rounder now under contract with the team through 2027. Over the course of 14 regular-season games in 2025, Addison recorded a 42-610-3 receiving line on 79 targets, but issues with drops and subpar QB play didn't help his cause. With former Cardinal Kyler Murray now on board and viewed as the favorite start at quarterback in Week 1 over J.J. McCarthy, and Jennings likely to draw more defensive attention than prior WR3 Jalen Nailor, Addison profiles as a bounce-back candidate in 2026.
Verdict
vs 7.5 TGTTargetsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 49% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)67supports it
Projection vs line49neutral
Consistency41neutral
Projection
7.9 TGT(×1.02 context)
L5 7.8 · L10 7.7 · med 7.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 5.2 · ceil 10.4
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 109 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Last 209 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Season9 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)
TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78% | 7/9 | ||
| 78% | 7/9 | ||
| 67% | 6/9 | ||
| 7.5Current | 44% | 4/9 | |
| 33% | 3/9 | ||
| 33% | 3/9 | ||
| 22% | 2/9 |
Situational splits
Over 7.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days38%3/8Low
With a teammate out
How this TGT line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
J.J. McCarthy out+0.8 TGT when he sits
Without (5g)
8.0 TGT
60% over 7.5
With (4g)
7.3 TGT
25% over 7.5
Aaron Jones Sr. out+1.5 TGT when he sits
Without (3g)
8.7 TGT
67% over 7.5
With (6g)
7.2 TGT
33% over 7.5
Last matchup — vs WSH
Dec 7, 2025
7thof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers
WSH allows 5.9 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 53 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 9 games, Jordan Addison has gone over 7.5 TGT 4 of 9 decided times (44%) — versus 44% across the full season. WSH has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 7th-most TGT of 32 teams (5.9 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.
More Jordan Addison research
Jordan Addison — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Addison Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Addison Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Addison Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.