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Indianapolis ColtsJosh Downs Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Josh Downs has gone over 9.5 FS in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- North Carolina
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 9.5 FS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJosh Downs isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Downs paced the Colts in targets, catches and receiving yards in a game that Alec Pierce (heel) exited in the first half. Pierce was the Colts' leading receiver last season, ahead of Tyler Warren, Michael Pittman (foot) and Downs. With Pierce hurt and Pittman now in Pittsburgh, Downs has a clear path to significant target volume from Daniel Jones in Week 3 at home against the Texans.
Verdict
vs 9.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 43% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)69supports it
Projection vs line43neutral
Consistency31argues against it
Projection
8.5 FS(×0.89 context)
L5 9.3 · L10 8.8 · med 8.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 6.1 · ceil 12.8
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2014 games
57%over
8 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 33%–79%Season14 games
57%over
8 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 33%–79%Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)
FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57% | 8/14 | ||
| 57% | 8/14 | ||
| 57% | 8/14 | ||
| 9.5Current | 57% | 8/14 | |
| 43% | 6/14 | ||
| 29% | 4/14 | ||
| 21% | 3/14 |
Situational splits
Over 9.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home57%4/7Low
Away57%4/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days54%7/13Low
Next matchup — vs HOU
Sep 27, 2026
1stof 32 in FS allowed to wide receivers
HOU allows 16.3 FS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Josh Downs has gone over 9.5 FS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 57% across the full season. HOU has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 1st-most FS of 32 teams (16.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 4.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.
More Josh Downs research
Josh Downs — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Downs Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Downs Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Downs Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.