Baltimore Ravens

Justice Hill Targets

Stats updated: Nov 9, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Justice Hill has gone over 3.5 TGT in 3 of his last 6 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Oklahoma State
Experience: 9 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 3.8 TGT · our line

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OutJustice Hill isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Hill sustained a neck injury in practice leading up to Week 13 last season and spent the remainder of the 2025 campaign on injured reserve. He was inching closer to a return toward the end of last season, so it's fair to assume he's back to 100 percent. Hill is expected to once again serve as the pass-catching specialist out of the backfield behind Derrick Henry in 2026.

Verdict

vs 3.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 60% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral

Projection vs line60supports it

Consistency27argues against it

Projection

4.3 TGT(×1.09 context)

L5 4.2 · L10 3.8 · med 3.5

Consistency

Variable

floor 2.0 · ceil 6.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 106 games

50%over

3 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%

Last 206 games

50%over

3 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%

Season6 games

50%over

3 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	6/6
	100%	6/6
	67%	4/6
3.5Current	50%	3/6
	33%	2/6
	33%	2/6
	0%	0/6

Last 6 games — TGT per game vs. line 3.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 3.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home67%2/3Low

Away33%1/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days60%3/5Low

Last matchup — @ MIA

Oct 31, 2025

26thof 32 in TGT allowed to running backs

MIA allows 2.2 TGT per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 38 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 6 games, Justice Hill has gone over 3.5 TGT 3 of 6 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. MIA has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 26th-most TGT of 32 teams (2.2 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.