Baltimore Ravens

Justice Hill Targets

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Justice Hill has gone over 2.5 TGT in 4 of his last 8 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Oklahoma State
Experience: 9 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 3.3 TGT · our line

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OutJustice Hill isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Hill saw an uptick in usage in the fourth quarter with the Ravens firmly in control of the game. He played 31 of 68 offensive snaps, which wasn't that far behind bell cow Derrick Henry's 37 snaps, though Hill is firmly entrenched as the Ravens' RB2, with Rasheen Ali being the distant third option. Hill will continue to serve as the change-of-pace back for the Ravens heading into Week 2 against the Saints on Sept. 20.

Verdict

vs 2.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 34% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral

Projection vs line34argues against it

Consistency8argues against it

Projection

3.5 TGT(×1.19 context)

L5 3.4 · L10 3.3 · med 2.5

Consistency

Variable

floor 2.0 · ceil 5.2

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 108 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Last 208 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Season8 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	8/8
	88%	7/8
2.5Current	50%	4/8
	38%	3/8
	25%	2/8
	25%	2/8

Last 8 games — TGT per game vs. line 2.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 2.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home75%3/4Low

Away25%1/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days57%4/7Low

Next matchup — @ DAL

Sep 27, 2026

22ndof 32 in TGT allowed to running backs

DAL allows 2.2 TGT per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Tough

The read

Over his last 8 games, Justice Hill has gone over 2.5 TGT 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. DAL has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 22nd-most TGT of 32 teams (2.2 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.