Kansas City Chiefs

Justin Fields Completions

Stats updated: Nov 14, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Justin Fields has gone over 18.5 CMP in 3 of his last 6 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Ohio State
Experience: 7 seasons

Line

PrizePicksCompletions · season avg 18.8 CMP · our line

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OutJustin Fields isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

The bigger story, of course, is that QB Patrick Mahomes (knee) is already participating in 11-on-11 drills. With Mahomes on track for the Week 1 start, Fields figures to spend most of his time with the second-string offense this summer.

Verdict

vs 18.5 CMPCompletions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 51% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral

Projection vs line51neutral

Consistency38argues against it

Projection

19.2 CMP(×1.04 context)

L5 19.4 · L10 18.8 · med 18.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 15.0 · ceil 21.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 106 games

50%over

3 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%

Last 206 games

50%over

3 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%

Season6 games

50%over

3 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%

Alternate lines — Completions (CMP)

CMP over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate CMP line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	67%	4/6
	50%	3/6
	50%	3/6
18.5Current	50%	3/6
	50%	3/6
	33%	2/6
	17%	1/6

Last 6 games — CMP per game vs. line 18.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 18.5 CMP by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%1/3Low

Away67%2/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days60%3/5Low

With a teammate out

How this CMP line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Kenneth Walker III out-0.3 CMP when he sits

Without (3g)

18.7 CMP

67% over 18.5

With (3g)

19.0 CMP

33% over 18.5

Last matchup — @ NE

Nov 14, 2025

21stof 32 in CMP allowed to quarterbacks

NE allows 19.0 CMP per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 22 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 6 games, Justin Fields has gone over 18.5 CMP 3 of 6 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. NE has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 21st-most CMP of 32 teams (19.0 per game). His game-to-game CMP have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 7.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

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Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.