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Los Angeles ChargersKeAndre Lambert-Smith
#84 · WR · 6' 1" · 182 lb · 3 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 2 of these 3 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Oct 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Auburn
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 19.0 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutKeAndre Lambert-Smith isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Lambert-Smith was expected to revert back to a minimal role on offense in Week 8 due to both Ladd McConkey and Tre' Harris returning to action, and that is exactly what happened. Lambert-Smith played just two offensive snaps in the contest, and he will continue to have little to no fantasy value as long as the rest of the Chargers' primary pass catchers are healthy.
Verdict
vs 23.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 45% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)99supports it
Projection vs line45neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup100supports it
Projection
20.5 REC YDS(×1.01 context)
L5 19.0 · L10 19.0 · med 24.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 10.2 · ceil 28.8
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 53 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Last 103 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Last 203 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Season3 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 2/3 | ||
| 67% | 2/3 | ||
| 67% | 2/3 | ||
| 23.5Current | 67% | 2/3 | |
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 33% | 1/3 |
Situational splits
Over 23.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Away67%2/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days100%2/2Low
Next matchup — vs HOU
Nov 8, 2026
1stof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
HOU allows 58.1 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 23 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 3 games, KeAndre Lambert-Smith has gone over 23.5 REC YDS 2 of 3 decided times (67%) — versus 67% across the full season. HOU has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 1st-most REC YDS of 32 teams (58.1 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 13.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.