Carolina Panthers

Kenny Pickett Completions

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Kenny Pickett has gone over 11.5 CMP in 1 of his last 2 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Pittsburgh
Experience: 6 seasons

Line

PrizePicksCompletions · season avg 11.5 CMP · our line

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OutKenny Pickett isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Per Reed, none of the Panthers' key starters are in line to see action in the contest, a group that presumably includes QB Bryce Young, WR Tetairoa McMillan and RB Chuba Hubbard. Once Pickett gets his share of reps Thursday, look for rookie UDFA Haynes King to get some work in versus Arizona's reserves.

Verdict

vs 11.5 CMPCompletions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 50% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral

Projection vs line50neutral

Consistency49neutral

Projection

11.7 CMP

L5 11.5 · L10 11.5 · med 11.5

Consistency

Variable

floor 9.4 · ceil 13.6

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 52 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 102 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 202 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Season2 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Alternate lines — Completions (CMP)

CMP over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate CMP line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	50%	1/2
	50%	1/2
	50%	1/2
11.5Current	50%	1/2
	50%	1/2
	50%	1/2
	50%	1/2

Last 2 games — CMP per game vs. line 11.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 11.5 CMP by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/1Low

Away100%1/1Low

Days since last game

3+ days100%1/1Low

Last matchup — @ PHI

Dec 14, 2025

26thof 32 in CMP allowed to quarterbacks

PHI allows 17.9 CMP per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 18 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 2 games, Kenny Pickett has gone over 11.5 CMP 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. PHI has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 26th-most CMP of 32 teams (17.9 per game). His game-to-game CMP have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 3.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.