Carolina Panthers

Kenny Pickett Completions

Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Kenny Pickett has gone over 7.5 CMP in 2 of his last 3 decided games (67%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Pittsburgh
Experience: 6 seasons

Line

PrizePicksCompletions · season avg 8.0 CMP · our line

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OutKenny Pickett isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

For a second consecutive week, Pickett will be the QB2 behind Bryce Young, with Haynes King (coach's decision) serving as the emergency third quarterback. Pickett has appeared in 37 regular-season games and has a 16-11 record across 27 starts in his NFL career, with most of those starts taking place in 2022 and 2023 as a member of the Steelers.

Verdict

vs 7.5 CMPCompletions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 48% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)99supports it

Projection vs line48neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

7.9 CMP(×1.02 context)

L5 8.0 · L10 8.0 · med 8.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 3.8 · ceil 12.2

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 53 games

67%over

2 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%

Last 103 games

67%over

2 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%

Last 203 games

67%over

2 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%

Season3 games

67%over

2 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%

Alternate lines — Completions (CMP)

CMP over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate CMP line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	67%	2/3
	67%	2/3
	67%	2/3
7.5Current	67%	2/3
	33%	1/3
	33%	1/3
	33%	1/3

Last 3 games — CMP per game vs. line 7.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 7.5 CMP by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%1/2Low

Away100%1/1Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%1/2Low

Next matchup — @ ATL

Sep 20, 2026

7thof 32 in CMP allowed to quarterbacks

ATL allows 24.0 CMP per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 1 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 3 games, Kenny Pickett has gone over 7.5 CMP 2 of 3 decided times (67%) — versus 67% across the full season. ATL has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 7th-most CMP of 32 teams (24.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game CMP have been highly variable (σ ≈ 5.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.