San Francisco 49ers

Kyle Juszczyk Carries

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Kyle Juszczyk has gone over 0.5 CAR in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Harvard
Experience: 15 seasons

Line

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PrizePicksCarries · season avg 0.3 CAR · PrizePicks line

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OutKyle Juszczyk isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Juszczyk madę the start and played just over 50 percent of the offensive snaps. The 35-year-old veteran is in his 14th NFL season but doesn't carry much, if any, fantasy value in redraft formats as a lead blocker.

Verdict

vs 0.5 CARCarries

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 26% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)27argues against it

Projection vs line39argues against it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.3 CAR(×1.06 context)

L5 0.2 · L10 0.3 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

30%over

3 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%

Last 2011 games

27%over

3 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 10%–57%

Season11 games

27%over

3 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 10%–57%

Alternate lines — Carries (CAR)

CAR over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate CAR line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	27%	3/11
	0%	0/11
	0%	0/11
	0%	0/11

Last 11 games — CAR per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 CAR by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home20%1/5Low

Away33%2/6Low

Days since last game

3+ days30%3/10Low

Next matchup — vs ARI

Sep 27, 2026

19thof 32 in CAR allowed to running backs

ARI allows 10.8 CAR per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Kyle Juszczyk has gone over 0.5 CAR 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 27% across the full season. ARI has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 19th-most CAR of 32 teams (10.8 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game CAR have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.

Over oddsOver only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 27%.