Los Angeles Chargers

Ladd McConkey Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Ladd McConkey has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Georgia
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.4 REC TD · our line

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OutLadd McConkey isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

McConkey finally shook off the concussion that led to his exit from a Week 6 loss to the Chiefs during Week 8 prep, and despite the fact Tre' Harris also was back from a hamstring injury, the former still led the Chargers in receiving yards and targets. The yardage tally was also a season high for McConkey, who is averaging a career-best 16.8 YPC on his 17 catches to date. Los Angeles' air attack showed some improvement Sunday following some retooling during the Week 7 bye, and McConkey figures to remain the top target on the winless Bolts in a Week 9 home matchup against the Texans next Sunday.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 70% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)81supports it

Projection vs line70supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup25argues against it

Projection

0.2 REC TD(×0.86 context)

L5 0.2 · L10 0.3 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

30%over

3 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%

Last 2017 games

41%over

7 over · 10 under

Medium confidence95% CI 22%–64%

Season17 games

41%over

7 over · 10 under

Medium confidence95% CI 22%–64%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	41%	7/17
	0%	0/17
	0%	0/17
	0%	0/17

Last 17 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home63%5/8Low

Away22%2/9Low

Days since last game

3+ days44%7/16Medium

Next matchup — vs HOU

Nov 8, 2026

11thof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

HOU allows 0.3 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 23 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Ladd McConkey has gone over 0.5 REC TD 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 41% across the full season. HOU has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 11th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.3 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 41%.