Baltimore Ravens

LaJohntay Wester Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

LaJohntay Wester has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 0 of his last 2 decided games (0%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Colorado
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.0 REC TD · our line

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OutLaJohntay Wester isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Wester caught 252 passes during his college career at Florida Atlantic, but he's largely been a return specialist since the Ravens took him in the sixth round of the 2025 NFL Draft. He should get some of the slot snaps in 11 personnel, which is where Flowers was dominating during last week's win over the Colts before a hamstring injury forced him to the sideline late in the second quarter. After finishing his rookie season with zero targets on 58 offensive snaps, Wester played 20 snaps last week and caught both of his targets for 15 yards.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 100% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line95supports it

Projection

0.0 REC TD(×1.08 context)

L5 0.0 · L10 0.0 · med 0.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 52 games

0%over

0 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–66%

Last 102 games

0%over

0 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–66%

Last 202 games

0%over

0 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–66%

Season2 games

0%over

0 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–66%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	0%	0/2
	0%	0/2
	0%	0/2
	0%	0/2

Last 2 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/1Low

Away0%0/1Low

Days since last game

3+ days0%0/1Low

Next matchup — @ DAL

Sep 27, 2026

17thof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

DAL allows 0.3 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 7 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 2 games, LaJohntay Wester has gone over 0.5 REC TD 0 of 2 decided times (0%) — versus 0% across the full season. DAL has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 17th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC TD have been variable (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 0%.