San Francisco 49ers

Mac Jones Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Jan 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Mac Jones has gone over 16.5 FS in 4 of his last 8 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Alabama
Experience: 7 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 16.8 FS · our line

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OutMac Jones isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Jones was able to throw at George Kittle's (Achilles) Tight End University last week. The backup quarterback started eight regular-season games for the 49ers last year and will remain a key depth piece for the organization going into the 2026 season.

Verdict

vs 16.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 59% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral

Projection vs line59neutral

Consistency46neutral

Projection

15.6 FS(×0.90 context)

L5 15.2 · L10 16.8 · med 16.4

Consistency

Variable

floor 13.6 · ceil 22.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 108 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Last 208 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Season8 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	75%	6/8
	63%	5/8
	63%	5/8
16.5Current	50%	4/8
	38%	3/8
	38%	3/8
	38%	3/8

Last 8 games — FS per game vs. line 16.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 16.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%1/3Low

Away60%3/5Low

Days since last game

3+ days43%3/7Low

Last matchup — vs LAR

Nov 9, 2025

20thof 32 in FS allowed to quarterbacks

LAR allows 15.4 FS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 22 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 8 games, Mac Jones has gone over 16.5 FS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. LAR has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 20th-most FS of 32 teams (15.4 per game). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 5.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.