Dallas Cowboys

Malik Davis Receptions

Stats updated: Dec 25, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Malik Davis has gone over 0.5 REC in 1 of his last 4 decided games (25%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Florida
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 0.5 REC · our line

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OutMalik Davis isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Dallas added Blue and Mafah in the fifth and seventh rounds of the 2025 NFL Draft last spring, but Davis was able to hold off both players for the No. 2 role once Miles Sanders (knee) went down with a season-ending injury in late September. While handling limited reps behind Williams, Davis averaged 4.8 yards on 52 carries, but he lacks standout traits as a runner and offers little utility as a pass catcher. Though Davis' ability to contribute on special teams should put him in good position to win a roster spot, Archer suggests that the 27-year-old is a "forgotten man" in the backup running back competition, with Blue bringing a more explosive skill set to the table and coming off an excellent offseason program in which the coaching staff touted his dramatic improvement compared to a year ago. The 6-foot-1, 232-pound Mafah, meanwhile, could represent a more ideal candidate than the 5-foot-10, 205-pound Davis to handle reps on early downs if Williams were to miss time at any point.

Verdict

vs 0.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 71% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line71supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.5 REC

L5 0.5 · L10 0.5 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.8

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 54 games

25%over

1 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 5%–70%

Last 104 games

25%over

1 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 5%–70%

Last 204 games

25%over

1 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 5%–70%

Season4 games

25%over

1 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 5%–70%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	25%	1/4
	25%	1/4
	0%	0/4
	0%	0/4

Last 4 games — REC per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%1/2Low

Away0%0/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days33%1/3Low

Last matchup — @ WSH

Dec 25, 2025

32ndof 32 in REC allowed to running backs

WSH allows 1.3 REC per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 35 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 4 games, Malik Davis has gone over 0.5 REC 1 of 4 decided times (25%) — versus 25% across the full season. WSH has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 32nd-most REC of 32 teams (1.3 per game). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 25%.