Green Bay Packers

MarShawn Lloyd Rushing TDs

Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

MarShawn Lloyd has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD in 0 of his last 1 decided games (0%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: USC
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

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PrizePicksRushing TDs · season avg 0.0 RUSH TD · PrizePicks line

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OutMarShawn Lloyd isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Lloyd worked ahead of Chris Brooks (seven carries for 29 yards) in a Packers backfield that struggled to generate much in the absence of Josh Jacobs (personal), who is on the Commissioner's Exempt List. Jordan Love threw 42 passes compared to 20 combined carries for Lloyd and Brooks, even though Green Bay led for most of the game prior to being outscored 22-0 in the fourth quarter. Lloyd looks poised to handle double-digit touches again in Week 2 against the Jets.

Verdict

vs 0.5 RUSH TDRushing TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 0% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)0argues against it

Projection vs line9argues against it

Projection

0.0 RUSH TD(×1.08 context)

L5 0.0 · L10 0.0 · med 0.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 51 game

0%over

0 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–79%

Last 101 game

0%over

0 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–79%

Last 201 game

0%over

0 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–79%

Season1 game

0%over

0 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–79%

Alternate lines — Rushing TDs (RUSH TD)

RUSH TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate RUSH TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1

Last 1 games — RUSH TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 RUSH TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Away0%0/1Low

Next matchup — @ NYJ

Sep 20, 2026

19thof 32 in RUSH TD allowed to running backs

NYJ allows 0.0 RUSH TD per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 1 games, MarShawn Lloyd has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD 0 of 1 decided times (0%) — versus 0% across the full season. NYJ has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 19th-most RUSH TD of 32 teams (0.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH TD have been variable (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.

Over oddsOver only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 0%.