Denver Broncos

Marvin Mims Jr. Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Jan 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Marvin Mims Jr. has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 1 of his last 10 decided games (10%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Oklahoma
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.1 REC TD · our line

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OutMarvin Mims Jr. isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Not Specified Foot Not Specified
Est. return:: Sep 27, 2026

Mims played just nine snaps on offense in a Week 1 loss at Kansas City, running six routes without seeing a target. His absence may leave a few more snaps for Troy Franklin, but the bigger impact for Denver will be on special teams, especially if RJ Harvey (questionable - hamstring) also ends up inactive. The team could look to the practice squad for a punt returner, while kick returns figure to be handled primarily by backup RBs Jonah Coleman and Tyler Badie.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 87% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line87supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.2 REC TD(×1.05 context)

L5 0.2 · L10 0.1 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

10%over

1 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–40%

Last 2012 games

8%over

1 over · 11 under

Medium confidence95% CI 1%–35%

Season12 games

8%over

1 over · 11 under

Medium confidence95% CI 1%–35%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	8%	1/12
	0%	0/12
	0%	0/12
	0%	0/12

Last 12 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home13%1/8Medium

Away0%0/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days9%1/11Medium

Next matchup — vs JAX

Sep 20, 2026

11thof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

JAX allows 0.3 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Marvin Mims Jr. has gone over 0.5 REC TD 1 of 10 decided times (10%) — versus 8% across the full season. JAX has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 11th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 8%.