Denver Broncos

Marvin Mims Jr. Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Jan 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Marvin Mims Jr. has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 1 of his last 10 decided games (10%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Oklahoma
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.1 REC TD · our line

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OutMarvin Mims Jr. isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Mims has yet to break out since being drafted in the second round in 2023, with his regular-season highwater marks being the 39 catches for 503 yards and six touchdowns he posted over 17 games in 2024. The wideout experienced a downturn in production last season despite logging a career high in offensive snaps, and Denver's acquisition of Jaylen Waddle this March pushes Mims further down the pecking order. Mims said Tuesday the combination of Waddle and Courtland Sutton will force opposing teams to have to "game plan" Denver's passing game differently, but the bottom line is that targets will be harder to come by with two highly regarded receivers on the roster. Mims has taken a positive outlook on potentially leaving the Broncos after the season, saying, "With this possibly being my last year, I'm just going to enjoy it to the fullest, going through it carefree and just play my hardest because we have a real chance to do something extremely special."

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 88% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line88supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.2 REC TD(×0.98 context)

L5 0.2 · L10 0.1 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

10%over

1 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–40%

Last 2012 games

8%over

1 over · 11 under

Medium confidence95% CI 1%–35%

Season12 games

8%over

1 over · 11 under

Medium confidence95% CI 1%–35%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	8%	1/12
	0%	0/12
	0%	0/12
	0%	0/12

Last 12 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home13%1/8Medium

Away0%0/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days9%1/11Medium

With a teammate out

How this REC TD line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

J.K. Dobbins out+0.2 REC TD when he sits

Without (6g)

0.2 REC TD

17% over 0.5

With (6g)

0.0 REC TD

0% over 0.5

Last matchup — vs NE

Jan 25, 2026

16thof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

NE allows 0.3 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 68 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Marvin Mims Jr. has gone over 0.5 REC TD 1 of 10 decided times (10%) — versus 8% across the full season. NE has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 16th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.3 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 8%.