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New Orleans SaintsMason Tipton
#15 · WR · 5' 11" · 187 lb · 4 games
Stats updated: Dec 21, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Yale
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 19.0 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutMason Tipton isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Leg Not Specified
- Est. return:
- Aug 15, 2026
It was initially believed Tipton was still recovering from the groin injury that landed him on injured reserve ahead of last season's Week 18 regular-season finale, but he evidently required surgery on his tibia and is working his way back from that procedure. Tipton has 25 catches for 175 scoreless yards on 43 targets across 25 career regular-season contests and is competing for his place in the Saints' wideout pecking order.
Verdict
vs 20.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 46% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral
Projection vs line46neutral
Consistency23argues against it
Projection
19.3 REC YDS
L5 19.0 · L10 19.0 · med 21.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 14.0 · ceil 24.8
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 54 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Last 104 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Last 204 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Season4 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75% | 3/4 | ||
| 75% | 3/4 | ||
| 75% | 3/4 | ||
| 20.5Current | 50% | 2/4 | |
| 50% | 2/4 | ||
| 25% | 1/4 | ||
| 25% | 1/4 |
Situational splits
Over 20.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away0%0/1Low
Days since last game
3+ days33%1/3Low
Last matchup — vs NYJ
Dec 21, 2025
17thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
NYJ allows 41.5 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 55 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 4 games, Mason Tipton has gone over 20.5 REC YDS 2 of 4 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. NYJ has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 17th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (41.5 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 8.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.