Loading…
Atlanta FalconsMichael Penix Jr. Rushing Yards
Stats updated: Nov 16, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
Michael Penix Jr. has gone over 6.5 RUSH YDS in 3 of his last 8 decided games (38%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Washington
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 7.6 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
QuestionableQuestionableConfirm Michael Penix Jr.'s status before the game.
- Injury:
- Left Knee - ACL Surgery
Penix has progressed to taking part in 7-on-7 drills, though he has yet to be cleared for full-team drills. While the 2024 first-round pick recovers from November surgery to repair a torn ACL, Tua Tagovailoa (back) has had a chance to get a leg up in Atlanta's quarterback competition by working with the starters earlier in the offseason. Atlanta's QB room also includes Jack Strand and Cooper Rush.
Verdict
vs 6.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 15/100· model 53% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)89supports it
Projection vs line53neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
7.0 RUSH YDS(×0.99 context)
L5 6.4 · L10 7.6 · med 6.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.2 · ceil 15.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 108 games
38%over
3 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%Last 208 games
38%over
3 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%Season8 games
38%over
3 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 6.5Current | 38% | 3/8 | |
| 38% | 3/8 | ||
| 38% | 3/8 | ||
| 25% | 2/8 |
Situational splits
Over 6.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days29%2/7Low
Last matchup — @ IND
Nov 9, 2025
31stof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to quarterbacks
IND allows 11.6 RUSH YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 17 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 8 games, Michael Penix Jr. has gone over 6.5 RUSH YDS 3 of 8 decided times (38%) — versus 38% across the full season. IND has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 31st-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (11.6 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 7.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 38%.
More Michael Penix Jr. research
Michael Penix Jr. — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Penix Jr. Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Penix Jr. Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
Penix Jr. Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.