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Pittsburgh SteelersMichael Pittman Jr.
#11 · WR · 6' 4" · 223 lb · 16 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 14 of these 16 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Oct 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- USC
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 47.5 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutMichael Pittman Jr. isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Foot Plantar Fasciitis
- Est. return:
- Nov 15, 2026
Pittman has missed the Steelers' last four games and is now eligible to be activated from IR at any point, but based on the receiver's comments, he doesn't appear to be trending toward a return to action following the team's Week 9 bye. The wideout noted that his left foot injury that first cropped up following the season opener was originally plantar fasciitis but has since "morphed into something else." While it's encouraging that he's at least healthy enough to start running again, Pittman didn't indicate when he might be ready to resume practicing with the team.
Verdict
vs 39.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 58% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)60supports it
Projection vs line58neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
29.5 REC YDS(×0.90 context)
L5 20.0 · L10 42.9 · med 26.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 16.0 · ceil 79.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
0%over
0 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2016 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Season16 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56% | 9/16 | ||
| 56% | 9/16 | ||
| 56% | 9/16 | ||
| 39.5Current | 50% | 8/16 | |
| 44% | 7/16 | ||
| 38% | 6/16 | ||
| 38% | 6/16 |
Situational splits
Over 39.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home43%3/7Low
Away56%5/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days47%7/15Low
Last matchup — @ CLE
Oct 1, 2026
26thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
CLE allows 37.4 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 29 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Michael Pittman Jr. has gone over 39.5 REC YDS 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 50% across the full season. CLE has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 26th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (37.4 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 31.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.