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Pittsburgh SteelersMichael Pittman Jr.
#11 · WR · 6' 4" · 223 lb · 14 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 14 of these 14 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- USC
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 52.1 REC YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
QuestionableQuestionableConfirm Michael Pittman Jr.'s status before the game.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Foot Not Specified
A limited practice participant throughout the week, Pittman appears truly questionable ahead of a 1:00 p.m. ET kickoff Sunday. If Pittman can't go, Germie Bernard figures to fill in again alongside DK Metcalf and Roman Wilson in an offense that's largely worked out of three-wide formations this season.
Verdict
vs 26.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsWarm overFireFactor 36/100· model 64% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line64supports it
Consistency2argues against it
Projection
33.6 REC YDS(×0.83 context)
L5 32.2 · L10 49.5 · med 35.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 26.6 · ceil 79.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2014 games
79%over
11 over · 3 under
Medium confidence95% CI 52%–92%Season14 games
79%over
11 over · 3 under
Medium confidence95% CI 52%–92%Situational splits
Over 26.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home83%5/6Low
Away75%6/8Low
Days since last game
3+ days77%10/13Medium
Next matchup — vs CIN
Sep 27, 2026
22ndof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
CIN allows 39.6 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 7 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Michael Pittman Jr. has gone over 26.5 REC YDS 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 79% across the full season. CIN has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 22nd-most REC YDS of 32 teams (39.6 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 30.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 79%.