Tennessee Titans

Mitchell Trubisky Rushing Yards

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Mitchell Trubisky has gone over 4.5 RUSH YDS in 1 of his last 1 decided games (100%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: North Carolina
Experience: 11 seasons

Line

PrizePicksRushing Yards · season avg 5.0 RUSH YDS · our line

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OutMitchell Trubisky isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Trubisky had been considered day-to-day due to general tightness, but the veteran backup has recovered from that issue. He's competing against Will Levis for the second spot on the quarterback depth chart behind 2025 first overall pick Cam Ward.

Verdict

vs 4.5 RUSH YDSRushing Yards

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 100% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line95supports it

Consistency100supports it

Projection

5.0 RUSH YDS

L5 5.0 · L10 5.0 · med 5.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 5.0 · ceil 5.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 51 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Last 101 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Last 201 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Season1 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)

RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate RUSH YDS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	1/1
	100%	1/1
	100%	1/1
4.5Current	100%	1/1
	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1

Last 1 games — RUSH YDS per game vs. line 4.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 4.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home100%1/1Low

Last matchup — vs NYJ

Jan 4, 2026

9thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to quarterbacks

NYJ allows 19.8 RUSH YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 17 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 1 games, Mitchell Trubisky has gone over 4.5 RUSH YDS 1 of 1 decided times (100%) — versus 100% across the full season. NYJ has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 9th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (19.8 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 100%.