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Denver BroncosNate Adkins Targets
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Nate Adkins has gone over 2.5 TGT in 3 of his last 6 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- South Carolina
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Targets · season avg 2.5 TGT · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutNate Adkins isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The block-first tight end secured a two-yard score in the fourth quarter to pull the Broncos within three points, before they scored the eventual game-winning touchdown on the next possession. Adkins now has six grabs for 44 yards and a score on seven targets this season. He has no fantasy appeal.
Verdict
vs 2.5 TGTTargetsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 50% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line50neutral
Consistency67supports it
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
2.6 TGT(×1.07 context)
L5 2.4 · L10 2.5 · med 2.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 2.0 · ceil 3.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 106 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Last 206 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Season6 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)
TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 6/6 | ||
| 100% | 6/6 | ||
| 2.5Current | 50% | 3/6 | |
| 0% | 0/6 | ||
| 0% | 0/6 | ||
| 0% | 0/6 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home60%3/5Low
Away0%0/1Low
Days since last game
3+ days40%2/5Low
With a teammate out
How this TGT line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Bo Nix out+0.3 TGT when he sits
Without (3g)
2.7 TGT
67% over 2.5
With (3g)
2.3 TGT
33% over 2.5
J.K. Dobbins out+0.3 TGT when he sits
Without (3g)
2.7 TGT
67% over 2.5
With (3g)
2.3 TGT
33% over 2.5
Next matchup — @ CAR
Nov 8, 2026
5thof 32 in TGT allowed to tight ends
CAR allows 4.4 TGT per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 12 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 6 games, Nate Adkins has gone over 2.5 TGT 3 of 6 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. CAR has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 5th-most TGT of 32 teams (4.4 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Nate Adkins research
Nate Adkins — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Adkins Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Adkins Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Adkins Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.